A series of opinion polls over the years shows a swing in favor of same-sex marriage from outright opposition. Apart from polls, electoral politics demonstrates the shift.
Last month, Maryland, Washington and Maine became the first states to approve same-sex marriage at the polls. They join Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Vermont and the District of Columbia, where same-sex marriage was approved either legislatively or by courts.
Consider how public opinion has moved:
First, let's look at the long-term view.
Now let's look at the trend in the most recent years.
"It doesn’t take a professional pollster to understand what the chart tells us," says Chris Cillizza of The Fix blog at the Washington Post. "In 1996, as the country was easily re-electing Democratic President Bill Clinton, two-thirds of the public opposed gay marriage. Sixteen years later, as the country was re-electing Democratic President Barack Obama just 43 percent opposed it while 48 percent favored it."
The annual average of polls conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News showed majority support for same sex-marriage, as the chart above shows.
Dig deeper into slices of opinion from recent Pew Research Center for the People and the Press suggest the trends won't be reversing themselves. As Cillizza points out:
In 2011-2012, 62 percent of people 18-29 supported gay marriage—by far the strongest support among any age group. During that same time period, just 32 percent of those 65 or older supported gay marriage.
The simple truth: Support for gay marriage tracks directly with age. The younger you are, the more likely you are to support it. Given that, it's hard to imagine gay marriage getting less popular as the years go on.
Whatever the Supreme Court does with its two gay marriage cases next year, the die has been cast on the politics of the issue. By the 2016 presidential election, this could well be a decided issue that neither party—yes, that includes Republicans—spends much time talking about.
Pew's survey for 2011-2012 gives these breakdowns:
Party affiliation
Democrats: 57 percent in favor of same-sex marriage, 35 percent opposed
Independents: 51 percent in favor, 35 percent opposed
Republicans: 26 percent in favor, 66 percent opposed
Age
18-29: 62 percent in favor, 32 percent opposed
30-49: 47 percent in favor, 44 percent opposed
50-64: 41 percent in favor: 47 percent opposed
65 and older: 32 percent in favor; 56 percent opposed
Party and age 18-29 years
Democrats: 74 percent in favor, 21 percent opposed
Independents: 64 percent in favor, 31 percent opposed
Republicans: 37 percent in favor, 59 percent opposed
Party and age 30-49 years
Democrats: 56 percent in favor, 35 percent opposed
Independents: 56 percent in favor, 38 percent opposed
Republicans: 25 percent in favor, 66 percent opposed
Religious affiliation
No affiliation: 71 percent in favor, 21 percent opposed
Catholics: 51 percent in favor, 38 percent opposed
Protestants: 33 percent in favor, 58 percent opposed
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