Nate Silver, the numbers cruncher whose algorithms correctly forecast the election of President Obama (and his re-election) and the rise of the Tea Party in the 2010 congressional elections, now foresees a surge of support for same-sex marriage throughout the country by 2020. Silver says there will be majorities in all but six states of the extreme Confederacy (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina).
If the voters had a say at the ballot box today, marriage equality would be the rule in 20 states, not just the 13 that have legalized it thus far by legislative or court action (the additional seven states being Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin).The reversal in public opinion on marriage equality is nothing short of astounding. As recently as 2004, in an effort by President Bush to motivate Republicans to get to the polls to re-elect him, voters rejected the idea of same-sex marriage in all 11 states where the issue was put before them in the form of a referendum (Bush carried nine of the 11 states). The opponents of marriage rights were predicting that Congress soon would ban same-sex marriages (and civil unions) nationwide.
Well, that hasn't happened.
Instead the LGBT community is enjoying greater social acceptance than ever. Take note of the latest news: The Internal Revenue Service will now recognize same-sex partnerships as valid for tax purposes, even in the partners live in a state that does not recognize marriage equality. Other federal benefits and responsibilities remain out of our reach for now, but the demise of the Defense of Marriage Act in June makes it possible to down obstacles.
We're winning the struggle, but much remains to be done to place us on equal footing with the straight population. We need to redouble our activism to succeed.
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